Despite a $60 million advertising campaign Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party could finish with no Senate seats leaving One Nation and the Centre Alliance party holding the balance of power.
The Australia Institute, a left-leaning think tank, released a report based on the averages from the last three polls of Senate voting intentions from market database service Dynata.
The report predicted that despite a massive months-long advertising campaign Palmer’s UAP will struggle to secure a single Senate seat on May 18.
Despite a multi-million dollar advertising campaign Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party could miss out on Senate seats leaving One Nation and Centre Alliance holding the balance of power after the May 18 election
‘Despite United Australia Party’s growth in popularity and their significant ad spend, One Nation are still most likely to win the sixth seat in Queensland,’ the report stated.
‘The possibility remains for Clive Palmer to be a dark horse.’
Current polls have the UAP on 3.3 per cent in Queensland, 3.6 per cent in South Australia and 2.9 per cent in Western Australia.
The low figures indicate that Palmer’s United Australia Party wont garner enough votes to secure a Senate seat in any of those key states.
The report predicted the best Senate outcome for Labor would be 28 seats, seven to nine seats for the Greens and 32 to 34 seats for the Coalition.
‘Our analysis shows the crossbench will remain large and diverse,’ the report read.
The Greens are expected to secure Senate seats in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria in the upcoming election
Ben Oquist, the executive director of the Australia Institute, said it would be very unlikely for either of the major parties to secure a Senate majority.
‘Neither Labor nor the Coalition is anywhere near securing a Senate majority, the crossbench including the Greens and Centre Alliance will remain diverse and powerful in the 46th Parliament,’ he said.
‘South Australia and Tasmania could be the crucial states in determining the final make-up and dynamic of the Senate.’
One Nation looks to have a chance of securing one of the final two senate seats left in Tasmania while the Greens, One Nation, Centre Alliance and the Liberal Party will contest for the final two seats in South Australia
One Nation looks to have a chance of securing one of the final two senate seats left in Tasmania while the Greens, One Nation, Centre Alliance and the Liberal Party are in the contest for the final two seats in South Australia.
One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts is on track to secure a Queensland Senate seat with a vote of 10.7 per cent, 18 months after he was disqualified for being a dual British citizen.
The Centre Alliance could also secure a South Australian seat with a vote of 6.2 per cent.
This could see former MP Skye Kakoschke-Moore elected to the Senate at the expense of Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young less than two years after she too was disqualified for being a dual citizen.
The results of the institute’s research lead them to conclude a Labor and Greens coalition would likely not be enough to secure a Senate majority.
‘Meaning that the Labor government will be dependent on Centre Alliance or One Nation to pass its reform agenda,’ the report stated.
The same Senate fate would also be likely for the Coaltion which would also require them to rely on minor parties to pass legislation through the upper house.
‘The Coalition faces a possible ‘nightmare’ scenario where they will need all non-Labor, non-Greens crossbenchers,’ the report stated.
The results of the institute’s research lead them to conclude a Labor and Greens coalition would likely not be enough to secure a Senate majority
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Clive Palmer could finish up with no Senate seats despite four month $60 million advertising splurge
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